Auto Outlook Symposium Summarized in Latest Chicago Fed Letter
With a generally positive outlook for the U.S. economy in 2004 and 2005, the auto sector is looking forward to modest increases in light-vehicle sales, according to a summary forecast of participants in the Chicago Fed's 2004 Auto Outlook Symposium featured in the August 2004 Chicago Fed Letter (574KB). According to participants, the auto sector performed a tad better than expected in 2003, thanks to a stronger economy in the second half.
In addition to a summary of economic conditions in 2003, conference participants provided and outlook that shows:
- In 2004, the economy will have its best growth in seven years, growing at a rate above potential, leading to a fall in the unemployment rate.
- Inflation is expected in 2004 to be just a bit higher than it was in 2003.
- Economic growth in 2005 will be slower but still above potential, with unemployment falling and the inflation rate easing.
- Light-vehicle sales are expected to increase moderately this year and in 2005.
To read the entire summary, see the August 2004 Chicago Fed Letter (574KB).