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Chicago Fed National Activity Index, November 2001
Economy Still at Recessionary Level
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in November, with the monthly index
rising to –1.21 from an upward revised value of –1.60 in October. Despite the improvement,
the November reading of –1.49 for the three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, was
little changed from the upward revised value of –1.48 in October. The CFNAI-MA3 continues
to be in a negative range that historically has been associated only with economic recessions.
November marked the seventeenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero,
an indication of how long the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values
below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.