CFNAI Turns Positive for the First Time Since June
Last Updated: 03/27/02
In February, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved out of negative territory for the first time since June 2000. The monthly index rose to +0.04 from an upward revised value of –0.33 in January. This increase represents the third consecutive improvement in the monthly index. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, also improved in February, rising to –0.28 from January’s upward revised value of –0.71. The February CFNAI-MA3 was at its highest level since July 2000. However, February still marked the twentieth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication of how long the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values below zero also signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.