Chicago Fed National Activity Index, November 2003
CFNAI Indicates Economy Continued to Grow in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.01 in October, a small decline from the September reading of +0.16. The value for the October index reflects small contributions —both positive and negative—from each of the broad categories of indicators that comprise the index. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, also declined slightly, from +0.06 in September to –0.07 in October. CFNAI-MA3 values below zero are associated with below-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.07 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend in October. With nregard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values below zero signal decreased inflationary pressures over the coming year.