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Chicago Fed National Activity Index, September 2003
CFNAI Indicates Economic Activity Slowed in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was –0.28 in August, a deterioration from the upward revised July reading of +0.05. The negative value for the index in August reflected continued weakness in employment-related data and a worsening of the outputrelated data compared to July; the contributions of other components of the CFNAI netted to a small positive value. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, improved slightly, from a revised –0.18 in July to –0.16 in August. CFNAI-MA3 values below zero are associated with below-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.16 suggests that growth in national economic activity continued to be below its historical trend in August. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.


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