Chicago Fed National Activity Index, December 2004
CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth in November
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.12 in November, down markedly from +0.49 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made small positive contributions, while the employment-related category made a slight negative contribution. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, a more consistent measure of economic growth, was nearly unchanged in November at +0.13. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.13 in November suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the fifteenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.