Chicago Fed National Activity Index, February 2004
CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Strengthened in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity index was +0.49 in January, a marked increase from the December reading of +0.05. January represented the fifth straight month in which the index was positive. Each of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made a positive contribution in January. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, also rose during the month, to +0.42 from +0.31 in December. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.42 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend in January. mWith regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.