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Chicago Fed National Activity Index, May 2004
CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity index increased sharply in April, to +0.64, from an upwardrevised +0.23 in March. Each of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the
index made positive contributions in April, with production- and employment-related measures making the strongest contributions. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was
+0.45 in April, up from +0.37 the previous month, and the eighth consecutive reading above zero. CFNAI-MA3 values above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the latest CFNAI-MA3 value suggests that growth in economic activity was above its historical trend again in April, as it has been since last September. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.