Chicago Fed National Activity Index, September 2004
CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.19 in August, down sharply from an upwardrevised +0.53 in July. The drop in the monthly index was due to smaller positive contributions
from production-related data and, to a lesser extent, housing and consumption-related data. The employment-related category made a small negative contribution to the CFNAI in August for the third month in a row. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.19 in August from an upward-revised +0.33 in July. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated
with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.19 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend in August for the twelfth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.