Chicago Fed National Activity Index, February 2005
CFNAI Shows Continued Above-Trend Economic Growth in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.21 in January, down from +0.59 in December. However, all four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made positive contributions to the January CFNAI. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.29 in January from +0.43 in December. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.29 in January suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the seventeenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.