About This ArticleJune 2005

CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Near Trend in May
Last Updated: 06/22/05
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.10 in May, up from +0.05 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index—production and income and consumption and housing—made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was –0.01 in May. A CFNAI-MA3 reading of zero is associated with trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of –0.01 in May suggests that growth in national economic activity was close to its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value near zero indicates neutral inflationary pressures over the coming year.