The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.16 in May, down from +0.26 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made negative contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.16 in May. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3
value of +0.16 in May suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.