Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC)
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) is a survey of business contacts located in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. The Chicago Fed produces diffusion indexes based on the quantitative questions in the survey that are released at 10:00 a.m. ET on scheduled days, normally in the second week of each calendar month.
The CFSBC to Become the CFSEC in Late April
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions will soon become the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions. Later this month, we’re changing the name to better represent the survey’s aim and base of respondents. The goal of the survey is to assess the state of the economy in the Seventh Federal Reserve District, which is served by the Chicago Fed. Moreover, since the beginning of the survey, it’s been filled out by both business and nonbusiness contacts. While the change is small, it reflects our ongoing commitment to provide the public with an accurate view of current economic conditions in our District.
Latest CFSBC Release
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) Activity Index decreased to +1 in March from +6 in February, suggesting that economic growth was near trend.
The CFSBC diffusion indexes are derived from survey questions that cover product demand, hiring, capital spending and input costs. Respondents report how these aspects of their businesses have changed over the past month (or are expected to change in the next 12 months) on a seven-point scale. Each diffusion index is calculated as the difference between the number of respondents with answers above their respective average responses and the number of respondents with answers below their respective average responses, divided by the total number of respondents. The index is then multiplied by 100 so that it ranges from +100 to −100. Respondents with no prior history of responses are excluded from the calculation. As an example, for the CFSBC Activity Index, if 30 respondents report above-average product demand growth, 20 respondents report below-average demand growth and there are 100 total respondents, the index will have a value of +10. On average, there are about 120 survey respondents, representing businesses from a wide range of industries with operations in the Seventh District.
For a detailed description of the diffusion indexes and their properties, see this Economic Perspectives article.