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Chicago Fed Letter, No. 31, March 1990
Smoothing Out the Business Cycle

The problem is that history is all we have to build empirical models. There are no data on the future. So, examining how the economy has changed is the best-and only-way to try to discover how the economy's behavior may change in the future.

Put another way, understanding how the economy has changed can provide

insights into how conventional wisdom will probably be wrong.



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