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Chicago Fed Letter, No. 268, November 2009
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Business Cycles
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index of U.S. economic activity constructed to summarize variation in 85 data series classified into four groups: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories. The index is designed as a coincident indicator of national economic activity and serves as a leading indicator of activity-related inflationary pressures. In this Chicago Fed Letter, the author reexamines the relationship between the CFNAI and business cycle turning points.
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