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Economic Perspectives, Vol. 20, 2nd, No. 3, May 1996
Soft Landings on a Bumpy Runway

Our case study of the 1995 economic slowdown reveals that part of the widespread deterioration in economic indicators was predictable in light of 1994 monetary policy actions. But it was also partly unanticipated due to a modest adverse supply shock in the first quarter of 1995.

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