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Chicago Fed Letter, No. 88, December 1994
The Ups and Downs of Commodity Price Indexes
The current concern about inflation began with the run-up in commodity prices at the beginning of 1993. At that time, financial markets overreacted when they interpreted a temporary surge in commodity price indexes as a sign of imminent higher inflation. As it turned out, commodity prices were responding to a variety of short-lived economic events and, contrary to expectation, inflation actually declined in 1993.
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