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Working Papers, No. 2026-16, August 2026 Crossref
Crypto Is Coming of Age: The Case of Bitcoin’s Rising Beta

This paper shows that Bitcoin has transitioned from a largely idiosyncratic crypto asset into a risk-on asset with returns resembling that of the broad U.S. stock market. We estimate time-varying Bitcoin betas with respect to a tech-heavy stock index (NASDAQ), a broader economy equity index (Dow Jones), and the 10-year Treasury bond returns. Across all beta specifications, multi-factor regressions, and structural break tests, we find that Bitcoin’s equity exposure rises substantially over time, turning statistically larger than zero around 2020. In contrast, the betas for the Treasury bond returns are not distinguishable from zero. Surprisingly, after controlling for the exposure to the Dow Jones Index, the exposure to NASDAQ is small and statistically insignificant throughout our sample period. This last finding is at odds with the common wisdom that Bitcoin behaves like a decentralized tech asset and points towards Bitcoin being mostly driven by broad stock-market sentiment.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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