In October, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remained below zero for a third month. The monthly index came in at –0.81 in October, a steep decline from –0.39
in September. Weakness in the production- and employment-related data again accounted
for the negative value of the monthly index. Persistent weakness moved the three-month
moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, down to –0.55 in October from its value of –0.26 in
September. Since the most recent business cycle peak in March 2001, the only positive
value of the CFNAI-MA3 has been +0.07, which occurred in July 2002.