An AI productivity boom can warrant lower nominal rates even when most gains are anticipated. I derive analytical representations of optimal rates under commitment and discretion in an economy with sticky prices and wages and hand-to-mouth households. Holding the realized productivity path fixed, I vary expectations. Anticipated gains raise the natural rate, but below-target inflation supports real wages and keeps nominal rates lower. Surprises leave the natural rate unchanged, calling for cuts. After surprises, expected redistribution toward hand-to-mouth households calls for deeper rate cuts to sustain savers’ spending. Raising rates requires more anticipation when wages are stickier relative to prices.
AI, Expectations, and Optimal Interest Rates
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
Microeconomics
Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth