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Working Papers, No. 2026-21, October 2026 Crossref
AI, Expectations, and Optimal Interest Rates

An AI productivity boom can warrant lower nominal rates even when most gains are anticipated. I derive analytical representations of optimal rates under commitment and discretion in an economy with sticky prices and wages and hand-to-mouth households. Holding the realized productivity path fixed, I vary expectations. Anticipated gains raise the natural rate, but below-target inflation supports real wages and keeps nominal rates lower. Surprises leave the natural rate unchanged, calling for cuts. After surprises, expected redistribution toward hand-to-mouth households calls for deeper rate cuts to sustain savers’ spending. Raising rates requires more anticipation when wages are stickier relative to prices.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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