The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released in
September updated projections for the fall grain harvest.
While anticipated corn production was revised downward
from the prior month’s projection, the estimate for
soybeans was upgraded on the basis of an improved outlook
for yields. In addition, the USDA released projections
on usage and ending stocks. These indicate that
supplies and use for both corn and soybeans are expected
to register year-over-year declines during the upcoming
marketing year. However, it should be remembered that
last year’s stellar harvest provided a powerful spur to domestic
use and exports. The current projections appear
more positive when viewed from a broader historical perspective.
It should also be noted that the corn and soybean
projections, coming early in the marketing year,
must be viewed as highly tentative.