On This PageJuly 2013, No. 312

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Estimating the Trend in Employment Growth
Last Updated: 06/05/13
For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth.