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Working Papers, No. 2020-17, July 2020 Crossref
Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening

To analyze the evolution of quantitative easing’s (QE) and tightening’s (QT) effects across consecutive announcements, we focus on their unexpected component. Treasury yield sensitivities to QE and QT supply surprises do not fall monotonically over time, thus later announcements seemed to remain powerful; yield sensitivities to QT surprises are on average larger than sensitivities to QE surprises, implying supply effects did not diminish during periods of market calm amid economic expansion; finally, yield sensitivities are amplified by the amount of interest-rate uncertainty prevailing before the announcement, implying that turning points in the balance sheet policy tended to elicit larger reactions.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

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