Thomas Walstrum

Principal Business Economist

About Bank Publications Working Papers Selected External Publications

About

Thomas Walstrum is a principal business economist in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. His responsibilities include the Seventh District's contribution to the Beige Book, the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions, and briefings for the Chicago Fed president on Seventh District economic conditions. He also is a contributing author to the Bank's Chicago Fed Insights article series.

Walstrum holds a B.A. in economics from Wheaton College, Illinois, and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago, with concentrations in labor and urban and regional economics.

Bank Publications

Recent Publications

What Parts of the United States Trade the Most?

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | Chicago Fed Insights | 2025 | June

What Region Looks Most Like the U.S. as a Whole?

Thomas Walstrum | Chicago Fed Insights | 2025 | March

Seventh District Year in Review for 2024: Economic Growth Slowed to Near Average

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | Chicago Fed Insights | 2025 | February

How Do Manufacturers Decide When to Invest in New Equipment?

Tarikua Erda, Thomas Walstrum | Chicago Fed Insights | 2024 | December

Seventh District Midyear Review: Economic Growth Continued to Be Solid in the First Half of 2024

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | Chicago Fed Insights | 2024 | August

Chicago Fed Insights

What Parts of the United States Trade the Most?

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2025 | June

What Region Looks Most Like the U.S. as a Whole?

Thomas Walstrum | 2025 | March

Seventh District Year in Review for 2024: Economic Growth Slowed to Near Average

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2025 | February

How Do Manufacturers Decide When to Invest in New Equipment?

Tarikua Erda, Thomas Walstrum | 2024 | December

Seventh District Midyear Review: Economic Growth Continued to Be Solid in the First Half of 2024

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2024 | August

An Update on the Status of Remote Work from the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions

Becky Schneirov, Thomas Walstrum | 2024 | May

How Is the Challenge of Finding Childcare Affecting Labor Force Participation? Perspectives from Employers Across the Seventh District

Susan Longworth, Thomas Walstrum, Martin Lavelle | 2024 | February

Seventh District Year in Review for 2023: Faster-Than-Expected Economic Growth

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2024 | February

Midwest Economy Blog

Regional Differences in Home Price Growth Since the Start of Covid-19 Are a Continuation of Long-Run Trends

Elainia Gupta, Thomas Walstrum | 2023 | September

Seventh District Midyear Review: Economic Growth Slowed Further in the First Half of 2023

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2023 | August

Seventh District Year in Review for 2022: Economic Growth Slows, Moving Closer to Long-Run Trend

Elizabeth Kepner, Thomas Walstrum | 2023 | February

The Pandemic Business Cycle Is an Outlier for State Economies

Katherine Bennett, Thomas Walstrum | 2022 | October

State Economies Hit Hardest by the Pandemic Are Still Playing Catch-up

Levi Bognar, Thomas Walstrum | 2022 | May

Are Slow-Growth States Growing Slower Again?

Nicholas Kumamoto , Thomas Walstrum | 2022 | February

Seventh District Year in Review—A Speedy yet Halting Recovery

May Tysinger, Thomas Walstrum | 2022 | January

Results from a Special Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions on Remote Work

May Tysinger, Thomas Walstrum | 2021 | August

How Much Has the Employment Response to the Covid-19 Pandemic Differed Across States?

Thomas Walstrum | 2021 | January

Results from a Special Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions on the Impact of Covid-19 on Manufacturers

Jada Houser, Thomas Walstrum | 2020 | June

Results from a Special Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions on the Impact of Covid-19

Martin Lavelle, Thomas Walstrum | 2020 | May

Fourth Quarter 2019 Review—Seventh District Growth Remained Below Trend

Thomas Walstrum | 2020 | February

The Role of Manufacturing in Explaining Employment Growth in the Midwest Since 2000

Patrick Szurkowski, Thomas Walstrum | 2020 | February

Third Quarter 2019 Review—Growth Remained Moderately Below Trend

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | November

Has Chicago’s Employment Growth Accelerated? Probably Not

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | October

Second Quarter 2019 Review—Growth Continued to Slow and Is Now Below Trend

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | August

First Quarter 2019 Review—Slower, but Respectable Growth

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | May

How Did the Government Shutdown Affect the Chicago Fed’s Business Survey Contacts?

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | March

Fourth Quarter 2018 Review—Growth Continued to Slow, but Remained Solid

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | February

Fourth Quarter 2018 Review—Growth Continued to Slow, but Remained Solid

Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | February

Third Quarter (Plus October) Review—Seventh District Still Doing Well, but Growth Has Slowed Some

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | December

How Have Rising Domestic and Foreign Tariffs Affected the Chicago Fed's Business Contacts?

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | November

First Half Review—A Good Year So Far for the Seventh District

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | August

First Quarter Review—A Good Start to the Year for the Seventh District

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | May

How do the Chicago Fed’s business contacts expect the steel and aluminum tariffs to affect their businesses?

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | May

How Should the State of Illinois Pay for its Unfunded Pension Liability? The Case for a Statewide Residential Property Tax

Thomas Haasl, Rick Mattoon, Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | May

How Do the Chicago Fed’s Business Contacts Expect to Spend Their Federal Tax Windfall?

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | February

Mid-Winter Review—Economic Activity in the Seventh District Picked Up After a Bit of a Lull

Thomas Walstrum | 2018 | February

Early Fall Review—Economic Conditions Continued to Be Good in the Seventh District

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | November

Late Summer Review—Seventh District Economy Still in Decent Shape

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | September

2017 Mid-Year Review—A Solid First Half for the Seventh District, Thanks to Revivals in Global Growth and U.S. Oil Production

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | August

Seventh District Update, July 2017

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | July

Seventh District Update, May 2017

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | June

Seventh District Update, April 2017

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | April

Job growth in the Seventh District in 2016—A post-benchmarking update

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | March

Seventh District Update, March 2017

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | March

Our First Look at Job Growth in the Seventh District in 2016—New Estimates Using Early Benchmarking

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | February

Seventh District Update, January 2017

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | January

Poor fiscal performance a problem for both state and local governments in Illinois

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | October

Seventh District Update, October 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | October

Seventh District Update, September 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | September

Seventh District Update, July 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | July

Seventh District Update, June 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | June

Seventh District Update, April 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | April

Early Benchmarking the State Payroll Employment Survey—Update

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | March

Seventh District Update, March 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | March

Seventh District Update, January 2016

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | January

Understanding the Seventh District’s economic slowdown in 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | January

Seventh District Update, December 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | December

Seventh District Update, October 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | October

Seventh District Update, September 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | September

Seventh District Update, July 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | July

“Early Benchmarking” the State Payroll Employment Survey

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | June

Seventh District Update, June 2015

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | June

Seventh District Update, April 2015

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2015 | April

Seventh District Update, March 2015

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2015 | March

2014 in Review: Strength in Manufacturing Led to Solid Growth in the Seventh District

Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | February

Seventh District Update, January 2015

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2015 | February

Seventh District Update, December 2014

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | December

A Seventh District Labor Market Dashboard

Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | November

Gross State Product Growth and the Midwest Economy Index

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | October

Seventh District Update, October 2014

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | October

Seventh District Update, July 2014

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | July

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | June

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | April

Michigan’s Automotive R&D Part II

William Testa, Thomas H. Klier, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | March

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | March

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2014 | January

Seventh District Economic Update

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2013 | December

Michigan Automotive, More Than Production

Thomas Walstrum, William Testa | 2013 | November

Seventh District Update

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | October

Seventh District Update, September 2013

Thomas Walstrum, Scott A. Brave | 2013 | September

Will Efforts to Fix Illinois Budget Hamper Economic Growth?

William Testa, Thomas Walstrum | 2013 | April

Midwest Outlook Workshop

Thomas Walstrum, Norman Wang | 2012 | January

Manufacturing in the Seventh District: Agriculture, Construction, and Mining Machinery

Thomas Walstrum, William Testa | 2011 | March

ProfitWise News and Views

Education and the Evolution of Earnings Across Population Groups Since 2000

Kelley Sarussi, Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | No. 5 Download

Chicago Fed Letter

Can the CFSBC Activity Index Nowcast U.S. Real GDP Growth?

Thomas Walstrum | 2017 | No. 378 Download

The Illinois Budget Crisis in Context: A History of Poor Fiscal Performance

Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | No. 365 Download

Using the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to Track Economic Activity

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | No. 328 | November Download

Economic Perspectives

The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report

Scott A. Brave, Thomas Walstrum, Jacob Berman | 2015 | Vol. 39 | 3rd Quarter Download

Michigan Economy Blog

Michigan’s Automotive R&D Part II

Thomas H. Klier, William Testa, Thomas Walstrum | 2014 | April

Michigan Automotive, More Than Production

Thomas Walstrum, William Testa | 2013 | November

Working papers

Working Papers

Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime (REVISED March 2021)

Scott A. Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender, Thomas Walstrum | 2019 | No. 2019-11 Download

Evidence on the Within-Industry Agglomeration of R&D, Production and Administrative Occupations

Benjamin Goldman, Thomas H. Klier, Thomas Walstrum | 2016 | No. 2016-20 Download

Selected External Publications

Acceptances in Academic Journals and Books

Brave, Scott A., Charles Gascon, William Kluender, and Thomas Walstrum, 2021, “Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 37, No. 3, July–September, pp. 1261–1275. 20210701050000

Goldman, Benjamin, Thomas H. Klier, and Thomas Walstrum, 2019, “Within‐industry agglomeration of occupations: Evidence from census microdata,” Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 59, No. 5, November, pp. 910–930. 20191101050000